Jimmy Rollins 2010 Fantasy Outlook

What better way to start off the player fantasy previews than with our longtime shortstop and leadoff hitter, Jimmy Rollins. Fresh off his 2nd worst pro season (only his 2002 stash line of .245/.306/.380 out-crapped ‘09), J-Roll is a tough guy to peg coming into 2010. Let’s take a closer look at the newly wifed-up man.

Three-Year Stats (5×5 Roto Categories):

2007: .296 AVG, 139 R’s, 30 HR’s, 94 RBI’s, 41 SB’s

2008: .277 AVG, 76 R’s, 11 HR’s, 59 RBI’s, 47 SB’s (missed time w/ankle injury)

2009: .250 AVG, 100 R’s, 21 HR’s, 77 RBI’s, 31 SB’s

2010 Predictions:

Bill James: .271 AVG, 104 R’s, 19 HR’s, 71 RBI’s, 33 SB’s

CHONE: .268 AVG, 102 R’s, 19 HR’s, 70 RBI’s, 29 SB’s

Marcel: .265 AVG, 87 R’s, 18 HR’s, 66 RBI’s, 32 SB’s

Let’s Talk…

Luckily for fantasy players, you do not have to carry the baggage that is Rollins’s god-awful OBP (.296 in ‘09) numbers. You can live with a .260 AVG for a shortstop with power and speed potential. Here is the breakdown of each 5×5 roto category:

AVG: There are many reasons to agree with Bill James and friends that Rollins will bump up his paltry batting average in 2010. The first is his incredibly low .253 BABIP from last season, worst by a longshot among starting position players for the Phils (Pedro Feliz next with .284). His 10.4% K rate in ‘09 is 2.5% below his career average, more proof that J-Roll could have been dealing with some serious bad luck. That being said, no one is expecting Rollins to hit .300 for the first time. Expect more in the range of .265-.275, certainly not a deal breaker for fantasy owners.

…More after the jump

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Tags: 2010 Mock Draft, Chase Utley, Derek Jeter, Elvis Andrus, Fantasy Baseball, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, MLB, Pedro Feliz, Philadelphia Phillies, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, Shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki

Notes from the Around the “Bank”

-Matt Gelb of the Inquirer writes about Scott Mathieson’s attempts for an “epic” comeback. The 26-year old will look to crack the bullpen after recovering from two Tommy John surgeries and a third elbow surgery. It has been a very long road since Mathieson premiered with the big league club in 2006.

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Tags: Brady Colvin, Brett Myers, MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Placido Polanco, Ruben Amaro Jr., Scott Mathieson, Shane Victorino

What to Expect from Contreras?

The Phillies finalized their one-year deal for Jose Contreras Thursday, paying him $1.5 million for his services in 2010. After spending almost five years with the White Sox, he was traded during the past season to the Rockies. There, he had the most work out of the bullpen as the Rockies pushed toward a playoff berth.

Contreras finished last season with a combined 4.92 ERA in 131.2 innings. He had a 7.25 K/9, and a 3.62 BB/9, both higher than his career averages. Opponents had a .325 BABIP on Contreras, which likely inflated his ERA a bit. His FIP was a 4.11, better than J.A. Happ (4.33) and Joe Blanton (4.45).

So the 38-year old seems to have enough in the tank to be given a job in the Phils pen. Would they consider anything more than that? Before last year, Ruben Amaro Jr. promised Chan Ho Park an opportunity to win the fifth starter job in spring training. The experiment ultimately failed before Park proved to be a force out of the bullpen. This year, no promise has been made to Contreras.

…More after the jump

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Tags: Chan Ho Park, Jamie Moyer, Jose Contreras, Kyle Kendrick, MLB, Philadelphia Phillies

Promotional Post: RotoJunkie, Fanball RSS Feed

If you like fantasy baseball, then you have got to go check out the forums at RotoJunkie.com. You will find great discussion about the upcoming fantasy season, with an extremely intelligent and passionate community. It is also a great resource to bounce around trade ideas with competent managers, as well as offering several, in-depth mock drafts.

The forums are run by Jason Collette, who is an associate editor for both OwnersEdge.com and RotoTimes.com. He also takes care of the Tampa Bay Rays blog in the Fanball network, DockoftheRays.com.

Phillies topics currently being discussed over at RotoJunkie:

-Is Lou Marson, part of the trade that brought Cliff Lee to Philadelphia, the starting catcher for Cleveland this season?

-What to expect from J.A. Happ in 2010? The jury is still out on the 27-year old, who had an incredibly consistent ‘09 season but still has people questioning his ability.

-Some intriguing thoughts in an ongoing thread about the state of the Phils farm system after the recent blockbuster trades.

Google Reader RSS: Baseball team blogs on Fanball network

-Check out the RSS feed of all the fine baseball writers in the Fanball community. Great way to find out what’s going on around the league,  combined with great analysis and fantasy info.

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Ruiz On Board for Another Three Years

The Phillies avoided arbitration with catcher Carlos “Chooch” Ruiz Sunday, signing him to a three-year, $8.85 million dollar deal with a fourth-year option. The option year would be for $5 million, with a $500,000 buyout.

All of the pending arbitration cases are now settled now that the 31-year old Ruiz has gotten his payday. With the recent outflow of catching prospects, Ruben Amaro decided Ruiz will be his man for the foreseeable future. In the past year, Amaro has shipped away Lou Marson, Travis D’Arnaud, Jason Jaramillio, and Ronny Paulino. That leaves only Sebastian Valle as a major-league caliber prospect, and he spent last season at Single-A.

In 2009, Ruiz batted .255 with 43 RBI’s and a career high nine home runs. He posted a career best .780 OPS, fifth among NL catchers with 350+ plate appearances. By comparison, Rollins sported a .719 OPS in ‘09. There is no doubt Ruiz is improving with the bat, and has come up large in postseason play (.303 BA). The best part of his game, however, is the defensive side, where he has a great rapport with the staff and is one of the best at receiving the ball.

Well liked in the clubhouse and among the Philly fanbase, Ruiz is quite deserving of his new contract. The deal buys out his three remaining arbitration years and potentially his first year of free agency. Good for you, Chooch!

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Tags: Carlos Ruiz, MLB, Philadelphia Phillies

Victorino, Blanton Sign Three-Year Deals

It didn’t take long for Ruben Amaro to shell out $46 million. Less than 24 hours, in fact. Two of the three players still eligible for arbitration, Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton, each got fresh three-year contracts Thursday.

The first announcement came with Blanton, who agreed to a $24 million dollar deal, keeping him in Philly until after the 2012 season. I recently spoke of the big man’s rather exorbitant arbitration ask price, which stood at $10.25 million. Now he gets the security of a guaranteed three years, with an average salary of $8 mil. Giving the fact that he would have been paid at least that figure ($8 mil) for his 2010 services, why not extend him at the same rate for another two years?

Blanton is still in his prime, at the age of 29, and will only be 31 when his contract expires. In ‘09, he went 12-8 with a very respectable 4.05 ERA. His reputation as an innings-eater is well deserved, he has now pitched over 194 innings for five consecutive years. The guy loves to pitch and has the bulldog mentality necessary to be successful both in the big leagues and in the city of Philadelphia. I’m happy to have him here for another three years, and so is he:

“They came to me with the prospect of going long term, and I couldn’t have been more thrilled,” Blanton said at a news conference Thursday. “I couldn’t be happier to have this opportunity to stay in the Phillies’ organization. I’ve enjoyed my time here and I feel like the organization just keeps getting better and better every year.”

The Victorino news broke late Thursday night, which surprised me due to Blanton’s signing earlier in the day. He is set to earn $22 mil in his new deal, also taking him through the 2012 season. Victorino would probably have made around $5-5.5 mil if he went with a one-year deal, so he is likely thrilled for the chance to stay with the Phillies and secure a nice contract from Amaro.

Like Blanton, the Flying Hawaiian is just 29, and will be 31 when his contract expires. So we can expect Vic to continue to improve here in his time with the Phils. In ‘09, he hit .292 with 10 home runs, 62 RBI’s, 25 stolen bases, and earned a Gold Glove. He plays a great centerfield, steps up in big moments, and is a spark plug for a team that thrives off energy. For three years, $22 mil is not too high a price to pay for that caliber a player. The only question is, what becomes of Jayson Werth?

The lanky right fielder broke out in a big way last season, but will be a free agent next November. He will no doubt command a large, Jason Bay, Matt Holliday-type contract if he continues to mash. With Ibanez signed for two more years and Vic locked up, can you afford to pay Werth his due? Especially with Domonic Brown, among others, waiting in the wings? Should be interesting to see how it all plays out.

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Tags: Jayson Werth, Joe Blanton, MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Shane Victorino

Arbitration Chatter

The Phillies entered the offseason with four players arbritration-eligible, Chad Durbin, Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, and Carlos Ruiz. 

On Monday, the Phillies avoided a hearing with the right handed reliever Durbin, who signed a $2.125 million dollar contract for 2010. Originally signed as a free agent in ‘07, Durbin pitched outstanding in the ‘08 World Series campaign. His performance (2.88 ERA in 71 appearances) earned him $1.635 million last season. The fact that he is getting a raise after posting a 4.39 ERA in 59 appearances is unfortunate, but that is the price you pay once a player builds up service time. I still like the signing, however, as Durbin is a quality pitcher who is capable of going multiple innings.

That leaves Victorino, Blanton, and Ruiz as the three remaining arb-eligible players. On Tuesday, they swapped figures for the 2010. Let’s take a look one by one.

Victorino has asked for $5.8 million, while the Phillies have offered $4.75 million. The flying Hawaiian made $3.25 mil in ‘09, so either way he is due a decent raise. There are rumors floating around that Ruben Amaro is discussing a longer-term deal with the centerfielder. It is looking like the Phils will try to buy out the last two years of arbitration, and possibly more. If the deal happens, it would be announced within the next week or so. Love to hear that Amaro is trying to lock up Vic for at least two more years, the guy is a Gold Glover capable of hitting .300 and swiping 40 bags. 

Get ready for this. “Broadway” Joe Blanton has asked for $10.25 million, while the Phillies are only offering $7.5 million. It isn’t often that a team and a player are so far off, but that is certaintly the case here. After making $5.475 million in ‘09, the 29-year old is looking for a big payday in his last year of arbitration eligibility. At first glance you would think that the figures are so off that surely both parties would be seated in front of an arbiter come February. But Phillies assistant GM Scott Proefrock doesn’t anticipate going to a hearing for any of the three players remaining:

“We’re working toward agreements in all cases and fully expect to get something done before we head to a hearing — in all cases,” said Proefrock, who wouldn’t go into specifics about the figures. We’re just continuing to have discussions with all three of them and hope to work toward agreements here in the near term.”

Ahh, I wish the Phils just traded Blanton and his exorbitant salary demands in order to keep Cliff Lee in red pinstripes for 2010. Especially since it is likely Blanton walks after the upcoming season, his first as a free agent.

The last arb-eligible player is “Chooch”, Carlos Ruiz. The Panamaniam catcher has asked for a pedestrian $2.5 million, with the Phillies countering at $1.7 million. Given that he received just $450,000 in ‘09, Ruiz is in line for a nice raise. And quite deserved, I must say. Ruiz has been a great leader for the Phils, and while his offensive numbers are by no means staggering, his handling of the pitching staff and defensive aptitude are important traits for your backstop. Batting in the 8th hole, it is not imperative that Ruiz is a monster with the bat, anyway. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Phils give Ruiz a fresh two-year deal.

Stay tuned for any news about multi-year signings with this group, they could happen any day now.

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Tags: Carlos Ruiz, Chad Durbin, Joe Blanton, Philadelphia Phillies, Shane Victorino

Opening Day in Question as Lidge Undergoes Surgery

Phillies closer Brad Lidge had his second operation of this offseason Wednesday, this time being minor arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. Team physician Dr. Michael Ciccotti performed the surgery, which could put Lidge’s status for Opening Day up in the air.

However, all parties involved say that the operation is not a big deal, and that Lidge could be on a throwing program in as little as 10 days.

“It was not a particularly invasive procedure,” Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told MLB.com before boarding a plane on Thursday afternoon. “We think the recovery time is two to three weeks. He should be throwing a baseball shortly. For us, it really doesn’t dramatically change the start time on his clock.

This is his third surgery on his right knee since ‘07, all procedures being somewhat minor. He had the same surgery prior to his first season in ‘08, and you all know how he pitched that year.

Lidge struggled mightily last season, blowing 11 saves and compiling a 7.21 ERA. He then went under the knife to have loose bodies removed from his right elbow, where he felt discomfort throughout the season. Recovery from both surgeries will make the Phillies start his intense training a bit later, being cautious with their talented closer. Lidge insists he’ll miss just a few days, at most:

“Opening Day remains my goal. I think there’s enough time to be ready. But I want to be smart. There’s no reason to rush. If I miss any time, it will probably be just a handful of days. Hopefully it would be like ‘08 where I missed a few days but everything went well after that.”

Lidge needs to start the season strong for both the mental part of his game and to keep the Philly faithful from getting restless. Everyone watched the meltdown last year, but the fan base never turned on him after what was a miraculous ‘08 season. They will not be so kind if he goes through a similar stretch early in this upcoming season.

If Lidge does start on the disabled start, Charlie Manuel will likely go with either Ryan Madson or newcomer Danys Baez. Both have closing experience, but Baez is the only former full-time closer in the Phillies bullpen. The decision would likely be based on who is pitching well down during Spring Training in Clearwater.

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Tags: Brad Lidge, Danys Baez, Philadelphia Phillies, Ryan Madson

Whose the Fifth Starter?

There is only one question mark surrounding the makeup of the 2010 starting rotation. Already penciled in are Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, and J.A. Happ. With Pedro Martinez gone, who is going to assume the unenviable role of the fifth starter?

The Candidates

1) Jamie Moyer is probably considered the favorite to rejoin the rotation. After getting booted from the fifth spot in favor of Martinez later in the season, he pitched fairly well in long relief duty. Unfortunately, his 2009 campaign prematurely ended due to a groin injury. Moyer made no secret of his displeasure from being removed from the rotation to begin with, but his play gave the Phillies no choice. Now a year older (47),  just how much can Moyer bring to the table?

Another point to consider is that Moyer is set to undergo surgery on his meniscus Monday, leaving his status for spring training and opening day in question. Even if the Phillies plan to hand Moyer his job back when he returns, who will hold his spot in line? And if that person is pitching well, could you make that decision anyway? I would have to think at this point in his career Moyer is not guaranteed anything, especially with his atrocious ‘09 campaign and recent string of injuries.

More after the jump…

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Tags: Andrew Carpenter, Ben Sheets, Cliff Lee, J.A. Happ, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, Pedro Martinez, Philadelphia Phillies, Ryan Vogelsong

Baez Joins Relief Corps

In a move that has been rumored for over a week, the Phillies have reached a two-year contract with ex-Orioles reliever Danys Baez. Terms will be announced after Baez takes a physical in Philadelphia, set to take place sometime this week.

The 32-year old right hander has 141 career saves, most notably his 41 with the Tampa Bay Rays back in 2005. In a non-closing role last year, Baez compiled a 4.02 ERA in 59 games while pitching in the tough AL East. It was his best season since the ‘05 campaign with the Rays, when he sported a 2.86 ERA.

This move likely signals the end for Chan Ho Park, who remains set on becoming a starter. With the addition of Baez, there remains two open spots in the bullpen. Already penciled in are Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, and now Baez. Competing for the last two spots are Sergio Escalona, Antonio Bastardo, Kyle Kendrick, and whoever else might step forward come spring training.

With Lidge coming off elbow surgery, it is possible Baez gets thrown into closing duty to start the season. He would be the most experienced guy in the ‘pen, and likely has the trust of Charlie Manuel, who managed Baez with Cleveland from 2001 to 2002.

Ruben Amaro is, for the most part, done tinkering with his roster for the 2010 season. Funds are running low and all needs seem to have been met. The only exception might be to bring back Scott Eyre on a minor-league deal. If he agrees to that, Eyre should win a spot on the opening 25-man roster.

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Tags: Antonio Bastardo, Brad Lidge, Chan Ho Park, Charlie Manuel, Danys Baez, J.C. Romero, Philadelphia Phillies, Scott Eyre, Sergio Escalona